Demonetisation: Human behaviour is like War

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has equated demonetisation as war, a war against blackmoney. Recent events prove that people believe Mr. Modi that this is war and are behaving as such.

The ban on Rupees 500 and 1000 notes has indeed created a warlike situation. The huge inflation during the UPA days, when food inflation was around 18%, had resulted in greater requirement of 500 and 1000 rupee notes. So when the Government announced that all the 500 and 1000 rupee notes had to be deposited in the banks, people were forced to deposit those. And since new notes were not printed, the Government only allowed people to withdraw 2000 rupees per day from an ATM, if you were able to beat the queue.

The situation is very tough as people don't have cash in hand. Most of the economy runs in cash. People often stand in queue in front of the ATMs for hours and return empty handed when the ATMs run out of cash. So there are frequent fights, fisticuffs, hurling of abuses at each other and at bank staff that goes on. A recent report also brought out the further ugly side of people. One person in West Bengal while standing in a queue fainted and the people didn't care to pick him up. The person lay there for 20 minutes before police found and shifted him to a hospital where he was declared brought dead.

In a war zone people don't grieve over dead bodies as they don't have time to retreat in view of the approaching army. They just move on to save their lives. Their survival instincts take over and ensure that they can do anything to survive. In one instance of a airline crash, the survivors were known to have turned cannibals and ate the dead people.

Our present situation has become similarly bad. Scarcity has induced a warlike situation and now people don't care to help someone who is exhausted and falls down resulting in deaths that could have been avoided.

Life and death has no value for people today. Concern for life has vanished. The cash scarcity will continue for many more months as some reports say that the total capacity to print notes is only 300 crores a month whereas the total number of notes to be replaced is 2300 crores. Since this situation will remain for atleast six months, there may be longterm implications as people will henceforth get used to only thinking about themselves and not concerned about others. A community succeeds if it stays united. When people lift each other up, then society moves up. When people only mind their narrow selfish interests, it causes great harm to society as the society is torn apart. In such times, it is easy to sow seeds of conflict. Government should be worried that terrorists can take advantage of such conflicts.

Surgical Srikes: Another take

With the DGMO press conference announcing Indian soldiers to have crossed the Line of Control (LoC) and inflicted large casualties on militants preparing for infiltrating to India, all hell have broken loose.

It has been proclaimed as the ruling party's answer to Pakistan and even the Modi Government's 56 inch chest bravado. In many circles it has been said that for the this has happened for the first.

Unfortunately, the situation is such that everybody in India has to agree and praise the Government of its "guts" and "attacking" Pakistan. Else, one will be immediately branded as anti-national.

It has been said that Indian soldiers have crossed the LoC and moved upto 500meters and in some cases upto 2 kilometers and attacked the terrorists and successfully come back.

After the initial brouhaha about these "surgical strikes", voices have been raised about the authenticity or the extent of these operations and have asked for the video proofs, which the army is supposed to have documented during the surgical strikes. No one would have demanded for publishing the videos, if it would not have been announced that there are video recordings of the operation. By the way, no name has been given to this operation. All operations ie significant actions have a code name.

Military observers will vouch that these kinds of actions have happened in the past. Earlier it used to be frequent. However, after the setting up of barbed wire fences and more patrolling, these situations have reduced. In one earlier instance, Pakistan troops had entered India and cut off the head of one soldier. So our troops are boiling and are capable of cross-border incursion and striking down targets if and when they are given orders.

India has field guns, like the Bofors, which can fire and strike some 28kms into the enemy territory with precision. These field guns were not used. Our soldiers have shoulder fired missile launchers which can strike down enemy posts across the border. Snipers can even take down militants some 7kms away. These snipers check the wind velocity, terrain and fire accurately from a distance of 7kms and instantly neutralise the target.

Recently, the former home mininster Mr. Chidambaram said that in January 2013, Indian soldiers had crossed the LoC and carried out operations. This was done without fanfare as the army chooses not to publicise such events. The then ruling party, the congress led UPA Government didn't choose to announce it. Now the BJP-led NDA has made it a policy and is reaping the political benefits.

The Indian army is normally not partisan and doesn't favour any political party. However, if the Government of the day orders to disclose any information, then it has to.

It appears that some activity has taken place. Pakistan has announced that 2 of their soldiers have died in some local firing. We are not sure of the exact nature of the action unless the Government chooses to disclose. If the hype is more and substance is less, then we will obviously not see the videos.

In the absence of any photo or videos released by the Government, there are lot of fake photos circulated by interested parties. One of the photos shows some militants lying near a broken building. However, this photo was lifted from internet. Interestingly that photo was of militants killed by Pakistan army in 2012 after they massacred school children.

In this intensive propaganda war, truth becomes diffused and difficult to detect. So people either keep quiet or believe whatever they want to believe. This is not the last of such incidents. Many more of such incidents are likely to happen.

It is said that with the BJP on the back foot in the UP elections, they are going to create more such situations in early 2017 to influence the UP electorate.

4.39 billion hit for Force India Promoter Sahara

Force India promoter troubles - Sahara asked to pay back Rs. 24,400 crores (4.39 billion dollars and interest) to depositors

Force India F1 team is having trouble with its majority promoters.

First the flamboyant Vijay Mallya who was the majority owner of Force India got into trouble when his Kingfisher Airlines went into massive losses. Last year before the Indian Grand Prix, Sahara group bought into the team with 45% stakes. It was expected that though at some point of time Vijay Mallya can pull out, due to the financial stability of the Sahara group the Force India team is safe.

That hope has now evaporated with the recent orders of the Hon’ble Supreme Court of India. Two Sahara group companies - Sahara India Real Estate Corporation Ltd (SIRECL) and Sahara Housing investment Corporation Ltd. (SHICL) has been ordered by the Hon’ble Supreme Court of India to refund Rs. 24,400 crores (4.39 Billion USD) collected from 2.21 crore (22.1 million) depositors at 15% interest.

These two Sahara group companies had collected this money through OFCD debentures. In November 2010 The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) had restrained these two companies from raising funds in the form of optional fully convertible debentures and the litigation was going on first in the Allahabad High Court and then in the Supreme Court.

A Supreme Court bench of Justices K. S. Radhakrishnan and J. S. Khehar have ordered that the amounts collected through Red Herring Prospecturrs (RHPs) dated 13^th of March, 2008 (amounting to Rs. 17,400 crores or 3.13 billion USD) and 16^th October, 2009 (around Rs. 7000 crores or 1.26 billion USD) along with 15% interest should be handed over to SEBI by depositing in a nationalized bank bearing the maximum rate of interest.

While delivering the judgement, the judges were not sparing in their words of condemnation. In a separate judgement, Justice Khehar said “It seems the two companies collected money from investors without any sense of responsibility to maintain records pertaining to funds received. It is not easy to overlook that the financial transactions under reference are not akin to transactions of a street hawker or a cigarette retain made from a wooden cabin. The present controversy involves contributions which approximate Rs. 40,000 crore, allegedly collected from the poor rural inhabitants of India. Despite restraint, one is compelled to record that the whole affair seems to be doubtful, dubious and questionable. Money transactions are not expected to be casual, certainly not in the manner expressed by the two companies.”

Will Majority promoter Sahara pull out of Force India?

It is not clear how soon this will pull down the Sahara group and affect the Force India team. With such a massive blow, it is to be seen how the Force India team copes up. The Sahara Group is yet to issue a statement on this and the fate of the Force India team. The last word on this is yet to be heard.

Spanish Grand Prix: Glory lap by Alonso

It was a bitter and sweet afternoon for the Spanish crowd watching the Friday practice session of the Spanish Grand Prix 2012.

Fernando Alonso who is adored by many of his fellow countrymen, didn't fail to charm the friday crowd in the Spanish Grand Prix and scored the P1 position at a time of 1:24.430. This was achieved in Ferrari's B- specd car. Alonso was 0.378 seconds faster than Sebastian Vettel of Redbul. Alonso's team mate in the other Ferrari, was down in 12th place a massive 1:003 seconds adrift.Michael Schumacher was 6th with a timing of 1:25.187 and his team mate Nico Rosberg was 14th with a timing of 1:25.607.

However, in the second practice Fernando Alonso could only score at 14th fastest lap time and his team mate who is generally struggling for the past two years scored a 11th fastest time. Jenson Button scored the P1 in the second practice followed by Sebastian Vettel. Nico Rosberg was third, Hamilton fourth, Raikkonen fifth, Grosjean sixth, Webber 7th followed by Schumacher at 8th position. Interestingly Schumacher drove 36 laps whereas his team mate Nico Rosberg drove 41laps ie. 5 laps more than him. With tyre degradation to become a major factor, it is important to see how the drivers cope up tomorrow as well as in the race day on Sunday.

The Indian fans were disappointed, as in the morning session Narain Karthikeyan didn't drive as Dani Clos - a spanish driver was given the drive to have an all spanish drive - as per earlier plan. In the second practice Narain Karthikeyan's car had developed an electrical problem and when he ventured very late in the second practice his car promptly stopped in turn three. We have to watch the impact of this lack of driving on Narain tomorrow. For the record, Dani Clos was a massive 2.511 seconds slower than his team mate Pedro de la Rosa, both of them driving 19 laps each.



The timings in First Practice:

	First Practice
Sl.	Driver	Team	Time	Gap	Laps
1	Fernando Alonso	Ferrari	1:24.430		20 laps
2	Sebastian Vettel	Red Bull	1:24.808	0.378	18 laps
3	Kamui Kobayashi	Sauber	1:24.912	0.482	28 laps
4	Jenson Button	McLaren	1:24.996	0.566	24 laps
5	Valtteri Bottas	Williams	1:25.120	0.690	24 laps
6	Michael Schumacher	Mercedes	1.25.187	0.757	15 laps
7	Romain Grosjean	Lotus	1:25.217	0.787	16 laps
8	Lewis Hamilton	McLaren	1:25.252	0.822	20 laps
9	Kimi Raikkonen	Lotus	1:25.285	0.855	29 laps
10	Nico Hulkenberg	Force India	1:25.339	0.909	24 laps
11	Jean-Eric Vergne	Toro Rosso	1:25.367	0.937	22 laps
12	Felipe Massa	Ferrari	1:25.433	1.003	21 laps
13	Mark Webber	Red Bull	1:25.539	1.109	23 laps
14	Nico Rosberg	Mercedes	1:25.607	1.177	20 laps
15	Sergio Perez	Sauber	1:25.918	1.488	19 laps
16	Daniel Ricciardo	Toro Rosso	1:26.226	1.796	24 laps
17	Pastor Maldonado	Williams	1:26.297	1.867	18 laps
18	Jules Bianchi	Force India	1:26.630	2.200	21 laps
19	Vitaly Petrov	Caterham	1:27.475	3.045	20 laps
20	Timo Glock	Marussia	1:28.267	3.837	21 laps
21	Alexander Rossi	Caterham	1:28.448	4.018	25 laps
22	Charles Pic	Marussia	1:28.633	4.203	22 laps
23	Pedro de la Rosa	HRT	1:29.107	4.677	19 laps
24	Dani Clos	HRT	1:31.618	7.188	19 laps

The Timings in Second Practice:

Second Practice Sl. Driver Team Time Gap Laps 1 Jenson Button McLaren  1:23.399 38 laps 2 Sebastian Vettel Red Bull  1:23.563 0.164 38 laps 3 Nico Rosberg Mercedes  1:23.771 0.372 41 laps 4 Lewis Hamilton McLaren  1:23.909 0.510 32 laps 5 Kimi Raikkonen Lotus  1:23.918 0.519 32 laps 6 Romain Grosjean Lotus  1:23.964 0.565 37 laps 7 Mark Webber Red Bull  1:24.065 0.666 34 laps 8 Michael Schumacher Mercedes 1.24.080 0.681 36 laps 9 Kamui Kobayashi Sauber  1:24.214 0.815 41 laps 10 Nico Hulkenberg Force India  1:24.365 0.966 22 laps 11 Felipe Massa Ferrari  1:24.418 1.019 35 laps 12 Sergio Perez Sauber  1:24.422  1.023 32 laps 13 Pastor Maldonado Williams   1:24.468 1.069 40 laps 14 Fernando Alonso Ferrari  1:24.600 1.201 33 laps 15 Paul DiResta Force India  1:24.688 1.289 30 laps 16 Jean-Eric Vergne Toro Rosso  1:24.733 1.334 34 laps 17 Daniel Ricciardo Toro Rosso  1:24.769 1.370 37 laps 18 Bruno Senna Williams   1:25.047 1.648  42 laps 19 Heikki Kovalainen Caterham  1:26.296 2.897 36 laps 20 Vitaly Petrov Caterham  1:26.740 3.341 35 laps 21 Timo Glock Marussia  1:27.314 3.915 27 laps 22 Charles Pic Marussia  1:27.664 4.265 30 laps 23 Pedro de la Rosa HRT  1:28.235 4.836 26 laps 24 Narain Karthikeyan HRT 2 laps